ntvНаучно-технический вестник информационных технологий, механики и оптикиScientific and Technical Journal of Information Technologies, Mechanics and Optics2226-14942500-0373Университет ИТМО10.17586/2226-1494-2023-23-1-121-135ntv-340Research ArticleИСКУССТВЕННЫЙ ИНТЕЛЛЕКТ И КОГНИТИВНЫЕ ИНФОРМАЦИОННЫЕ ТЕХНОЛОГИИARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND COGNITIVE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIESЦенностно-ориентированное моделирование принятия экономических решений в условиях нестационарности внешней средыValue-based modeling of economic decision making in conditions of unsteady environmenthttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1555-9371ГулеваВ. Ю.GulevaV. Yu.

Гулева Валентина Юрьевна - кандидат технических наук, старший научный сотрудник

Санкт-Петербург, 197101

Valentina Yu. Guleva - PhD, Senior Researcher

Saint Petersburg, 197101

guleva@itmo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1765-7001КованцевА. Н.KovatsevA. N.

Кованцев Антон Николаевич - инженер

Санкт-Петербург, 197101

Anton N. Kovatsev - Engineer

Saint Petersburg, 197101

ankovantcev@itmo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4411-271XСуриковА. Г.SurikovA. G.

Суриков Анатолий Георгиевич - кандидат технических наук, старший научный сотрудник

Санкт-Петербург, 197101

Anatoly G. Surikov - PhD, Senior Researcher

Saint Petersburg, 197101

anatoliy.surikov@itmo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8169-8436ЧунаевП. В.ChunaevP. V.

Чунаев Пётр Владимирович - кандидат физико-математических наук, старший научный сотрудник

Санкт-Петербург, 197101

Petr V. Chunaev - PhD (Physics & Mathematics), Senior Researcher

Saint Petersburg, 197101

chunaev@itmo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6615-0701ГорноваГ. В.GornovaG. V.

Горнова Галина Владимировна - доктор философских наук, доцент

Санкт-Петербург, 197101

Galina V. Gornova - D.Sc. (Philosophy), Associate Professor

Saint Petersburg, 197101

gornova@itmo.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1588-8164БухановскийА. В.BoukhanovskiyA. V.

Бухановский Александр Валерьевич - доктор технических наук, профессор

Санкт-Петербург, 197101

Alexander V. Boukhanovskiy - D.Sc., Professor

Saint Petersburg, 197101

avbukhanovskii@itmo.ruУниверситет ИТМОРоссияITMO UniversityRussian Federation202318122024231121135Copyright © Гулева В.Ю., Кованцев А.Н., Суриков А.Г., Чунаев П.В., Горнова Г.В., Бухановский А.В., 20242024Гулева В.Ю., Кованцев А.Н., Суриков А.Г., Чунаев П.В., Горнова Г.В., Бухановский А.В.Guleva V.Y., Kovatsev A.N., Surikov A.G., Chunaev P.V., Gornova G.V., Boukhanovskiy A.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://ntv.elpub.ru/jour/article/view/340

Предмет исследования. Изменяющаяся среда формирует условия для изменения поведения людей, что в совокупности может приводить к кризисным ситуациям. В случае принятия экономических решений возникающая нестационарность динамики разных компонентов системы может представлять собой экономический кризис. Исследована возможность учета общечеловеческих ценностей при моделировании принятия решений в условиях изменения среды. Внутренние процессы агента, предшествующие принятию решения, отражены в концепции «убеждения-желания-намерения-действия-реакция» (Beliefs-Desires- Intentions-Actions-Reactions, BDIAR).Метод. Выполнен обзор закономерностей и существующих подходов к моделированию экономических решений и предложен новый, авторский подход. Выявлены механизмы влияния стресса на принятие решений, факторы ограничения рациональности и оценки рисков в контексте поведенческой экономики. Рассмотрены известные теории влияния ценностей на изменение структуры потребления в кризисной ситуации. Показаны способы учета эмоций в архитектуре агента. В предлагаемой модели ценности рассмотрены как социальный фактор принятия решений. В силу их субъективности они представлены математически как базис оценки объектов среды. Субъективность оценок объектов выбора отражена в функциях привлекательности объектов, функциях динамики состояния агента и субъективности влияния решения на удовлетворенность агента.Основные результаты. Показана возможная модификация компонент модели агента с учетом влияния ценностей на динамику потребления. Предложен метод учета ценностей в архитектуре BDIAR при моделировании принятия решения агентом, где уровни архитектуры соответствуют ценностям, функциям предпочтения и динамике состояния агента. Проанализированы псевдонимизированные транзакционные данные по дебетовым картам клиентов банка-партнера «Санкт-Петербург» отдельно за 2017–2019 гг. и 2020 г. Продемонстрирована субъективность влияния среды в кризисной ситуации на динамику изменения ценностей и потребностей для разных групп потребителей с учетом кластеризации типов их поведения. Показаны различия динамики ценностей на индивидуальном уровне и уровне групп; подтверждено повышение приоритета ценностей выживания и продемонстрирована разная скорость возвращения к докризисному состоянию для различных поведенческих групп.Практическая значимость. Полученные результаты могут быть полезны для развития методов моделирования экономического поведения в условиях нестационарной внешней среды, в частности, в случае кризисов.

The changing environment creates the conditions for changing people’s behavior which together can lead to crisis situations. In the case of making economic decisions, the emerging non-stationarity of the dynamics of different components of the system can represent an economic crisis. The possibility of universal human values consideration in modeling decision-making under conditions of changing environment has been studied. The internal processes of an agent prior to making a decision are reflected in the concept of Beliefs-Desires-Intentions-Actions-Reactions (BDIAR). The article reviews the regularities and existing approaches to modeling economic decisions, and proposes a new, author’s approach. The mechanisms of influence of stress on decision-making, factors of rationality limitation, and risk assessment in the context of behavioral economics are revealed. The well-known theories of the influence of values on the change in the structure of consumption in a crisis situation are considered. Ways of taking into account emotions in the architecture of the agent are shown. In the proposed model, values are considered as a social factor in decision making. Due to their subjectivity, they are presented mathematically as the basis for assessing environmental objects. The subjectivity of the objects of choice assessments is reflected in the functions of attractiveness of the objects, the functions of the agent’s state dynamics, and in the subjectivity of the decision influence on the satisfaction of the agent. A possible modification of the components of the agent model is shown, taking into account the influence of values on the dynamics of consumption. A method is proposed for taking into account values in the BDIAR architecture when modeling an agent’s decision-making where the levels of the architecture correspond to values, preference functions, and functions of the agent’s state dynamics. The pseudonymized transactional data on debit cards of the partner bank customers were analyzed separately for 2017–2019 and 2020. The subjectivity of the environment influence in a crisis situation on the dynamics of changes in values and needs for different consumer groups is demonstrated, taking into account the clustering of their behavior types. Differences in the dynamics of values at the individual level and the level of groups are shown; an increase in the priority of survival values and a different rate of return to the pre-crisis state for different behavioral groups are also shown. The results obtained are useful for developing methods for modeling economic behavior in a non-stationary external environment, in particular, in the case of crises.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.